Land of Paradoxes

Sheraton Plaza Ufa - Congress Hotel
Site of Fourth Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club

Someone trying to make sense of Iran's behavior:

Land of Paradoxes by Timofey Bordachev

The strongest impression from Iran is the paradox that accompanies almost all aspects of public life. On the one hand, the state strictly monitors order on the streets and compliance with religious requirements. On the other hand, there are no excessive security measures. Moreover, sometimes I even want these measures to be strengthened. For example, at airports, where the random movement of people creates the impression of easy accessibility for terrorists. The ban on all foreign instant messengers is combined with the universal use of VPNs. The conflict with the United States, which has been going on for almost half a century (Iran is one of the few countries where there is not even an American embassy), does not prevent the elite and representatives of the academic environment from fluently speaking English and often publishing in overseas journals.

This paradox is fully inherent in Iranian foreign policy, as one could see after spending several days in the country during the pause between exchanges of drone and missile strikes with Israel. General impression: Tehran is completely satisfied with the results achieved and is not at all eager for an all-out war with its main regional enemy. What from the outside looks like an insufficiently powerful response to Israel is, in Iranian paradoxical logic, exactly optimal. Because it allows you to solve a foreign policy problem without creating unnecessary risks. Everyone understands perfectly well that a big war in the Middle East is beneficial only to Israel? This means that the response to even his most aggressive attack should not serve the interests of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. For Tehran, the main thing is not to give Israel what it wants, and not at all to try to impress anyone.

This unique approach to foreign policy and solving internal problems is the result of the special conditions in which Iran has developed since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Its main consequence was the strategic confrontation with the West, which unfolded at the very peak of world dominance of the United States and its European allies - in the 1980s - 2000s. At first, Tehran’s enemy was also the USSR, which supported the government of Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War. By the way, people in Iran remember this well. But this does not mean that the attitude towards the Soviet Union is transferred to Russia - here Iranian strategic logic easily accepts that yesterday’s enemy can be a reliable ally today. The conflict with the West, despite the possibility of tactical deals, has an ideological character: the Iranian state is built on the independence of internal decisions, which the United States and Europe deny to everyone else.

The price of this Iranian independence is very high. First of all, there is a constant outflow of educated young people, dissatisfied with the restrictions of private life. The price also includes a significant number of poor people and air pollution in cities due to the use of old cars and poor quality gasoline. The answer to these challenges, as should be typical of a Grand Strategy, is paradoxical: it consists in a constant increase in the number of students and large universities with their own research laboratories (mainly in the natural sciences). Now Iran is probably the country with the most rapidly growing educational programs, including those aimed at international cooperation. At the same time, no one is preventing the return of those who have left, if they have not committed any offenses. Collaborative research with Iranians living abroad is also encouraged. And Iran’s consistent efforts in developing the natural sciences allow us to think that over time it will be possible to solve the economic and technological problems of development. Under the conditions of the American blockade and UN sanctions, results are coming slowly, but the alternative is a renunciation of independence, which is not part of Iran’s plans.

When assessing Iran's foreign policy, we must first understand that this power has fought against all odds for several decades, outnumbered and alone. And therefore, she may, like few others, be characterized by the paradoxical logic that distinguishes the owners of a real Grand Strategy. And every decision of the Iranian authorities - tactical or more ambitious, such as joining BRICS in January of this year - should be assessed precisely as a manifestation of a paradoxical, completely devoid of linearity logic. Predicting behavior within the framework of such logic is almost impossible, but it is precisely this logic that makes relations with Iran interesting and instructive.