Strait of Hormuz

Drone, Coast Guard Cutter and US Navy Ships in Strait of Hormuz

I will admit to being curious about how the war on Iran is going, but I don't trust any of the reports I am seeing. I am afraid I will just have to wait six months to see how it all shakes out, then we might have some better information. Of course, the world is always in turmoil, so in six months there will be some other war in the headlines and will we even remember what was going on in Iran?

Meanwhile, G-Captain has got a theory about what's going on. I like it because it puts finance front and center:

The Hormuz Hypothesis – What If the U.S. Navy Isn’t in a Hurry to Reopen the Strait? by John Konrad

Introduction: 

The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe five million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It is geological and hydrographic.

Every TV analyst in America is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. They are asking the wrong questions. The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy’s willingness and ability to reopen it.

Every talking point suggests the White House and Navy are working hard to reopen the strait but progress is slow. A new post on Truth Social suggests we may have to consider a new hypothesis.

“I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called Strait?” wrote President Trump in a post this morning. “That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast!!!”

The article goes on to talk about insurance and the politics thereof. It's a little complicated. Hell, it's very complicated.

CMA CGM Tower Marseille

One thing stood out and that is CMA CGM. Why are they getting mentioned in this story about geopolitics and high finance? Because CMA CGM, otherwise known as Compagnie Maritime d'Affrètement - Compagnie Générale Maritime, is the third-largest container shipping company in the world.

Via Marcel at MONDAY EVENING