Question on Quora: What percentage of conspiracy theorists (e.g. JFK conspirators, flat Earthers, anti-vaxxers, and moon hoaxers) are trolls as opposed to true believers?
Response from Dave Consiglio:
There is also a third option: The easily swayed. I suspect that the vast majority of conspiracy theorists actually fall into this third category. Here’s my evidence:
In the first week of chemistry class, I pass out a half sheet of paper to each student. On it, there is a short amount of reading and four questions. Students have to read and answer the questions. What they don’t know is that half of them get assignment A and half get assignment B. I tell them I am really interested in their personal opinions, so please don’t share share their answers.
Reading from Assignment A:
- The cancer causing properties of Argon
Information about Argon:
- Argon is a rare gas that can be found in basements and elevators.
- It is claimed by some that breathing argon for long periods of time can cause cancer.
- People who do not have cancer that breathe argon sometimes develop cancer later in life.
- Argon is dumped into the air by power plants; some people claim that the government is doing this on purpose
Reading from Assignment B:
- The cancer fighting properties of Argon
Information about Argon:
- Argon is a rare gas that can be found in basements and elevators.
- It is claimed by some that breathing argon for long periods of time can help fight cancer.
- People who have cancer that breathe argon sometimes survive their cancer and live a long time.
- Argon is very cheap to produce in large quantities; some people claim that the government is hiding this from us
Questions for both assignments:
What do you think should be done about Argon?
Write three words that describe a person who gives Argon away for free to children.
Argon is heavier than air and tends to settle in basements. What would you do about this?
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 is not at all confident and 10 is completely confident, how confident are you that Argon is dangerous?
Now, as you can see, I’ve switched a couple of words. After the students read and answer questions, I have them write their best word from question #2 on a white board and hold them up at the same time.
Half the kids write “Monster” or “Murderer” or “Horrible”. The other half write “Helper” “Doctor” “Amazing”.
Confusion reigns.
Then, I tell them to switch papers with their neighbor. The ruse is up pretty quickly.
After everyone gets over the fact that they’ve been duped, I ask them to discuss question #4. Almost invariably, both sides have an average confidence in the 7–8 range. No one thinks I’m fooling them. But I ask them to debate which side is right anyway. They get surprisingly heated on the conversation. Many students are truly convinced that Argon causes (or prevents) cancer. They want to believe.
After the debate, the students are always dying to know: “Which is it???”
That’s the moment when I try to break down the childish mind and replace it with a more adult one.
Argon does not cause cancer. It does not cure cancer. Argon is utterly inert. It makes up about 1% of our atmosphere and we all breathe it with every breath.
All of the statements I made, however, are true. I am the “some people” who claim that argon causes (and cures) cancer and that the government hides these things. Everyone who gets cancer breathes argon, and everyone who gets cured of cancer also breathes argon. Argon can settle in low spaces, and it’s cheap to produce, and it really does come out of smokestacks (it’s air) so all of those things are also true.
Now, the moral of the story:
After the activity, I ask them to rate their confidence again (on a scale of 1 to 10). Many student get it. They say, “OK, I see what you’re trying to teach me. Don’t believe everything I read. Some people lie for their own purposes. Don’t just trust authority figures.” They lower their confidence levels to 1 or 2 or 3 and we talk about whether it should be 1 or 2 or 3. That is, of course, the point of the lesson.
But a subset, perhaps 10%, don’t believe I’m lying to them. They believe that argon really does cause (or cure) cancer. They stick with their 10s (they’re nearly always 10s). They are so convinced that the first thing they read was true that they are unwilling (or unable) to believe anything else. The longer I’ve done this assignment, the more I focus on those students, trying to understand why they believe in something so obviously false.
My conclusion: Some people believe the first (or last) thing they heard. Some people get a belief in their heads that is fundamentally and obviously incorrect, but are unable or unwilling to let it go. Is it pride? Is it stubbornness? Is it something different?
That I do not know.
But, I am confident of this: many (and I suspect most) conspiracy theorists believe what they believe not because they are “true believers”, and not because they are trolls. They believe it because they have the kind of brain that easily accepts beliefs and then vehemently resists rejecting accepted beliefs.
Psychologists out there: Is there a name for people of this kind? I suspect they are the kinds of people who join cults, or are more likely to stay with an abusive partner, or send money to a Nigerian prince. Are these things better documented than I have done? Please comment!
