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| The Four Scenarios |
The number of deaths is particularly fraught. Roughly one thousand people die every day in the USA in normal circumstances. That's roughly 400,000 people per year. How many of those deaths are caused by the flu in a normal year? Maybe as few as 10,000, perhaps as many as 80,000. Telling me that X number of people died from COVID-19 yesterday, or last week, doesn't really mean anything to me unless you can compare it to some baseline, and what's the baseline for a new disease? There isn't one.
We don't know how infectious this disease is and we don't know deadly it is and we won't really know until it has run it's course and some unbiased people have had a chance to review the statistics. (Unbiased people? Where are you going to find any of those?)
Meanwhile, where are we headed? Mark Weber has posted a power point presentation that looks at four possible scenarios of what the future might bring. The slide at the top of this post is number ten. The presentation is aimed at business leaders, but everyone could benefit by considering these possiblities.
Via Cool Tools
1 comment:
It's hard to get a handle on the numbers as long as we don't have the ability to get everyone tested, only then can they figure out the relationship between non-infected, asymptomatic, mild like the flu, or need to hospitalize.
Or maybe we're being conditioned to accept people disappearing, being told we can't see them die, or have a funeral. That way we won't question where Soylent Green comes from. ;o)
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