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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race
California Bob pontificates:
Interesting poll about general election matchups:
Clinton over Trump   +11 points;
Clinton over Cruz    + 3 points;
Kasich  over Clinton + 6.5;
Sanders over Trump   +17 points;
Sanders over Cruz    +10 points;
Sanders over Kasich  + 2 points
So, between the democrats, Bernie beats all repubs more than Clinton.
Among the GOP, Kasich, in last place, is the best performing in the general election, indeed, the only republican to beat Clinton.
This is kind of the exact opposite of how all candidates are performing in the primaries.  Having a hard time getting my head around it.
If GOP primary voters are a tiny fraction of electorate (and they are), it's conceivable the first choice of a tiny group could be poison in the general election.  But then why is Bernie behind in the primaries if he's so far ahead broadly?  Answer is probably  the math of primaries, and super-delegates.
Still have a hard time understanding how Cruz outperforms Trump; Cruz is such a weirdo freak, wake up and smell the coffee people!
Another poll shows that if Bernie drops out, fully 20% of Bernie voters would swing to Kasich over Clinton.  That seems odd, but my own top two picks, counter-intuitively, are Bernie and Kasich.  Why?  I like Bernie's authenticity and think it would be interesting to try a socialist government, just to see if anything actually changed.  And I like Kasich among the GOP just because he has the political courage to not be a completely stupid sub-normal.

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